According to a Sep 10 poll by the BBC, Kamala Harris was beating Donald Trump by only 1%, with a poll of 48% nationally. However, since 5% of voters remained undecided before the election Harris’ slight advantage seemed negligible.. It’s important to prepare ourselves for former President Trump’s second term by asking what this will look like for America.
Fun fact: There has already been a female president. When President Biden had a colonoscopy, he transferred power to Vice President Harris for an hour. When people say first female president, they mean first elected female president.
To fully understand Trump’s future impact, we have to look at his past. In 2016, Donald Trump became the first U.S. president without prior government or military experience, marking a significant political shift. His unconventional campaign and presidency, characterized by aggressive rhetoric and polarization, deepened societal divisions. During his four years in office, Trump maintained high approval ratings among Republicans (average of 86%) but low approval ratings from Democrats (average of 6%), creating the widest partisan gap in modern polling. His approval ratings peaked at just under 50% and dropped to 29% by the end of his term, particularly after the January 6 Capitol insurrection, for which he was impeached a second time.
The insurrection had enormous and quantifiable effects on American society and politics. In a Pew Research Center survey conducted shortly after the event, roughly 60% of Americans viewed the attack as a threat to democracy. More than 1,000 people were arrested in the wake of the event. The insurgency even led to the second impeachment of President Trump conducted by the House of Representatives; he was the first president to be sanctioned in a vote largely along party lines, 232-197 against Trump.
Security at the Capitol was greatly ramped up, with barriers erected and National Guard troops deploying measures which were extended through the post-event period, resulting in a 200% increase in the Capitol Police budget for 2021. It also ratcheted up the rhetoric on misinformation, where an estimated 20% of Americans in late 2021 still believed the fallacies about the 2020 election. Overall, the insurrection incited by the former president was expensive and harmful. Still, this article doesn’t include the loss of confidence felt by governments around the world, many of whom once considered America’s government incorruptible.
This event in January was only a shortfall of President Trump’s term. He appointed conservative officials and Supreme Court justices, who struck down Roe v.Wade in 2022. This meant states were given the right to create their own laws on abortion. Following the Supreme Court’s decision, Republican states tightened abortion laws. In 17 states, minors now need permission from parents to have an abortion, hypothetically meaning a child without a developed bone structure could be forced to go through excruciating pain because of abortion restrictions in the South.
Trump has not been friendly to women’s health in many other ways. His administration restored and expanded the so-called Mexico City Policy, which prohibits federal funding from supporting international family planning organizations that perform or promote abortions. Trump has also tried to strip Planned Parenthood and other reproductive health providers of federal funding by proposing cuts to Title X, the decades-old program underpinning family planning services. His administration also supported a reversal of the Affordable Care Act’s contraceptive mandate, allowing employers to deny coverage for birth control on religious or moral grounds. These efforts and more have added fuel to the national debate over access to reproductive health care and women’s rights.
During his presidency, Donald Trump implemented an “America First” foreign policy that significantly reshaped U.S. international relations, often leaving the country isolated from the world. Key actions included withdrawing from the Iran Nuclear Deal, which escalated tensions with Tehran, pulling out of the Paris Climate Agreement, and distancing the U.S. from other global climate initiatives.
Trump criticized NATO and reduced troop numbers in Germany, straining ties with European allies. His trade war with China involved extensive tariffs, which negatively impacted both economies. In the Middle East, he facilitated normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab states while recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Trump’s high-profile summits with North Korea failed to achieve denuclearization, and his administration oversaw significant troop withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan. Additionally, he enacted strict immigration policies, including the controversial “Remain in Mexico” program. As President-elect Joe Biden took office, Trump’s legacy was characterized by both disruption of traditional alliances and notable diplomatic initiatives.
Given this information, Donald Trump will attempt his own recalls of things similar to the Biden years — none more so in areas of immigration, health care, and climate regulation. His administration could usher in more “America First” foreign policies that could put allies on notice and reshape international deals. Trade agreements could become obsolete and could affect numerous sectors of the economy, further exacerbating national debt.
Ongoing events can lead to increased social and political unrest and polarization in line with the current context, greater impact by Trump on the Republican Party, and influence over the candidates in the elections. Moreover, legal challenges and investigations into Trump will remain a major aspect of his life and legacy. In turn, this could make for a highly combative environment that can overshadow his presidency and stifle governance, once again fueling anger and division.